Syria, Assad and Inevitability
It may be too soon to accurately forecast the changes that lay ahead for Syria, but I think it is safe to conclude that Assad retain his current position much longer.
Assad, official ruler of Syria since 2000 held power under the auspices of an “emergency decree” instituted by his father, Hafez Al-Assad, in 1971. In a grave irony, Assad Jr. only terminated the 40-year “decree” in 2011 as his country began to sink into what we are witnessing now.
Assad is desperate and trying to put the genie of an openly resistant population back “into the bottle.”
The only problem is he can’t. The genie is out and will stay out for good now.
We know that Assad’s regime is absolutely brutal and willing to murder anyone participating in the unrest. The country itself is crippled by sanctions, the population suffers from access to basic goods and services and has no friends left in the world save Russia whom are now holding the Syrian regime at arm’s length with the Russian Foreign Minister recently admitting that “We have gone as far as we can” with Syria.
Seeing reports of battles on the outskirts of Damascus do not bode well for Assad and his ilk.
There are three scenarios that could play out:
- Assad and his security forces reach for the bazooka option. This means, in effect, a massive escalation in violence, killing and death from what we have already witnessed. Assad wages a scorched earth campaign to stamp out the resistance. This is essentially what Gaddafi was set to implement in Benghazi had NATO not intervened. A bloodbath.
- A rapid decline in internal support for Assad as some in his inner circle see the light of day and realize Assad is over. Assad is either forced from power and flees to Russia or Iran or will be killed.
- A third way is a prolonged civil war that results in a power sharing agreement between the two sides. Assad largely retains power during this interim period while his allies consolidate whatever loyalty to the regime remains through intimidation and special treatment. Think Robert Mugabe in Zimbabwe.
Door # 2 is the most likely to open. Assad is in a very weak and tenuous position that will only become more fragile as support for Assad within his own army declines.
Beyond the immediate suffering being felt y the Syrian people, the other big loser here is Iran. They are losing a proxy through which they exert massive influence in Lebanon via Hezbollah.
Whatever or whomever takes the place of Assad in when this is over remains to be seen, but the ultimate winner will be the people of Syria. They will have been empowered to take charge of their own destinies through action and sacrifice.
